Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 100.708750 114.607853 130.116381 148.773954 170.703432 195.772199 226.758234
2026-02-08 79.800595 97.009153 117.794343 144.991666 179.998712 224.031744 284.390143
2026-02-15 67.011929 85.433843 109.009536 141.856938 187.181884 248.640905 340.246850
2026-02-22 61.907347 82.218415 109.548138 149.797180 208.927517 294.849738 433.469694
2026-03-01 56.076776 76.960639 106.225485 151.337065 221.181788 328.847619 514.989139
2026-03-08 51.530309 72.779085 103.638134 153.183564 233.625414 364.557118 606.139530
2026-03-15 47.293151 68.473036 100.203409 153.008047 242.456562 395.407841 695.117826
2026-03-22 45.522073 67.609791 101.780111 160.816593 265.414113 454.004021 848.735548
2026-03-29 43.671010 66.377005 102.548082 167.239737 286.768697 513.396578 1019.015658
2026-04-05 41.797553 64.885024 102.666817 172.442684 306.548756 573.300326 1206.530768
2026-04-12 39.472411 62.409045 100.835459 173.835837 319.150731 620.976463 1379.514569
2026-04-19 37.105976 59.639323 98.196271 173.348034 327.837498 661.866229 1547.773335
2026-04-26 34.365828 56.073266 93.946361 169.542530 329.696989 689.392298 1694.099263
2026-05-03 31.872601 52.741352 89.820600 165.512628 330.533574 714.969413 1844.566496
2026-05-10 29.702124 49.804920 86.143752 161.926574 331.754047 741.678840 2007.778229
2026-05-17 29.349413 50.124761 88.590080 171.247884 363.841156 852.988915 2478.013830
2026-05-24 28.121435 48.717642 87.571580 173.058128 378.512783 922.185756 2839.995348
2026-05-31 27.032470 47.482452 86.768487 175.225489 394.428250 998.772792 3264.847690
2026-06-07 25.784467 45.845055 85.007853 175.019730 404.293093 1060.403496 3663.510176
2026-06-14 25.537736 46.134471 87.201270 184.189796 440.461934 1211.707573 4519.398748
2026-06-21 25.128852 46.065595 88.632565 191.743281 473.767068 1364.345080 5486.045092
2026-06-28 24.604447 45.719825 89.435082 197.868511 504.295488 1517.602939 6570.887668
2026-07-05 23.744335 44.620104 88.495713 199.509611 522.003623 1631.351898 7536.472349